If the Ukraine crisis should escalate, Germany up to five could get along months without Russian gas. That comes out from a new crisis simulation, which is present Spiegel online. Other EU countries would get fast problems.
Hamburg - in the autumn 2014 the controversy over east Ukraine is intensified
appreciably, the European Union and Russia fights each other with ever harder
sanctions, finally, in November, seizes the Russian president to the extreme
one: Wladimir Putin closes the gas tap for Europe. A cold winter threatens the
whole continent. It is the ultimative crisis scenario, with which
energy-industry Institut at the university was long concerned to Cologne (EWI)
several weeks. A so far completely theoretical study. Completely wrong are it in
addition, no more, since Russian troops creep in into east Ukraine and with the
building of a gas pipeline to China began Russia. Nevertheless: If the case of a
Russian gas embargo should arise, then Germany could withstand it obviously for
a long time. Only after six months a stop of Russian natural gas deliveries
would lead to supply disruptions in Germany, is called it in the EWI simulation,
which is present Spiegel online. Well 3.4 billion cubic meter gas to be missing,
have the energy experts around directors of studies Harald Hecking were then
calculated. In the entire past year in Germany approximately 84 billion cubic
meter were used. The EWI study calls two conditions, so that Germany could get
over the winter to a large extent without deliveries from Russia: As
reconciliation for the missing pipeline gas Europe would have altogether well 45
billion cubic meter more liquid gas to import than last year. The raw material
is cooled thereby on minus 164 degrees and exported by tankers into all world.
Owing to the additional raw materials of the ship would have to be passed fewer
gases from Germany into other European Union member states. Since the liquid gas
would have to come to a large extent from Asia, the gas prices might rise, are
called it in the study. If only additional 25 billion cubic meter were imported,
it would already come with a three-month gas embargo to delivery bottlenecks
into Germany. The Federal Republic would have to empty their gas memory the
winter over nearly completely. They did not let themselves fill up then up to
the winter after the next again completely. Supply security would be lower
thereby also from October 2015 until March 2016 than normal, is called it in the
study. Also technically the supply of the Federal Republic from alternative
sources would be probably possible problem-free. “The German gas nets are so
modern that the rivers could be up to date rerouted”, communicate a spokesman of
the Ontras gas transport GmbH. “Effects on the transportability in of Germany
pipelines would not be to be feared therefore.”
Crisis scenario: Follow a Russian gas boycott
